IEA forecasts near-4,800 GW of new renewable capacity by 2031, driven by energy security

The International Energy Agency (IEA) expects global renewable power capacity to grow by almost 4,800 gigawatts (GW) between 2026 and 2031, nearly 60% more than in the preceding six years. Its annual report, Renewables 2026, attributes the acceleration mainly to energy security concerns, which are pushing a wider group of countries to cut their reliance on imported fuels.

Solar leads, and growth spreads

Solar photovoltaics (PV) are projected to supply more than three-quarters of the added capacity, with onshore wind in second place. The geographical pattern is changing as well. For the first time, emerging and developing economies outside China are expected to add as much renewable capacity as advanced economies over the forecast period.

China remains the largest contributor, but its share of global additions is forecast to fall from over 60% in 2025 to an average of 53%, a shift the report links to changes in Chinese renewable energy policy. India is described as the second-largest growth market, with total renewable capacity set to more than double by 2031. In India, Southeast Asia, the Middle East and North Africa, and sub-Saharan Africa together, capacity additions over the period are projected to almost triple compared with the previous six years.

The report places these trends against the disruption to energy markets since the outbreak of the Iran war in late February. IEA Executive Director Fatih Birol notes that environmental goals once led policy, whereas energy security is now the main motivation. Renewables currently provide about a third of global electricity, and the agency expects them to approach half within five years.

Households and transport

Growth is not confined to utility-scale projects. Where fuel is expensive or electricity supply unreliable, households and small businesses are installing rooftop solar systems that can be fitted quickly. The report finds that such installations have already improved electricity service for around 70 million households.

Renewable energy use in transport is forecast to rise by more than 60% by 2031, reaching 6% of the sector's global energy demand. Electric vehicles account for roughly 45% of that increase, and biofuels make the next largest contribution. Several countries, notably in Southeast Asia and Latin America, have raised biofuel blending mandates in response to high prices and supply problems, and the IEA has revised its biofuel forecast upwards by 40% compared with last year.

Supply chains and grid bottlenecks

The report also addresses manufacturing concentration. India's share of global solar PV module production is expected to almost double to 17% within five years, which would help diversify a market that remains highly concentrated.

The more pressing constraint is the electricity network. The volume of advanced-stage renewable and storage projects awaiting grid connection rose 60% over the past year to 3,000 GW, about four times the wind and solar capacity connected last year. The IEA therefore gives highest priority to grid investment keeping pace with deployment, together with reforms that shorten connection times.

Flexibility as a research and policy focus

The agency points to battery storage, whose deployment is accelerating in many countries, as a quick way to make power systems more flexible. It also stresses demand-side flexibility, which can be implemented rapidly. Digital tools, including artificial intelligence, could help move consumption towards periods of abundant renewable output, improving the use of variable generation.

Why it matters

These figures are projections from an agency report rather than measured outcomes, and they depend on continued policy support and on grid and storage investment materialising. The source summary does not give details of the underlying modelling assumptions or uncertainty ranges, which readers will need to consult in the full report.

Even so, the analysis flags several areas of active research: grid integration and connection queue management, storage and demand-response technologies, the resilience of solar manufacturing supply chains, and the effects of distributed rooftop solar on electricity access. How quickly networks and flexibility measures scale will largely determine whether the forecast capacity translates into secure, affordable and reliable supply.

Source: Energy security concerns spur faster renewables growth across a widening constellation of countries (Tech Xplore, 7 November 2026).

Image: AI-generated illustration.