Cervical cancer deaths could rise 39% by 2050, global burden forecast suggests

Global cervical cancer cases could increase by 20.2% and deaths by 39.3% by 2050, according to a modelling study in Nature Medicine. The burden is expected to remain highly uneven, with the highest incidence and mortality in sub-Saharan Africa.

What the analysis covered

Natalie Pritchett, Lisa Force and colleagues drew on estimates from the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study. They examined cervical cancer incidence, deaths and health loss in 204 countries and territories between 1990 and 2023, then modelled trends forward to 2050.

For 2023, the team estimated 887,000 new cases and 369,000 deaths worldwide. The gap between richer and poorer settings was stark. The age-standardised incidence rate in low-income countries was more than four times that in high-income countries, and the mortality rate was more than seven times higher.

Projections to 2050

Compared with 2024 levels, annual cases are forecast to reach 1.08 million by mid-century. Annual deaths are projected to rise to 522,000. Part of this growth reflects the size and age structure of populations, rather than rising risk alone, although the summary of the study does not break this down.

The steepest increases are expected in sub-Saharan Africa. Cases there could rise by 88.7% and deaths by 95.4%, reaching an estimated 206,000 deaths in 2050.

Elimination targets look out of reach

The World Health Organization defines cervical cancer elimination as fewer than four cases per 100,000 people. The authors report that none of the seven Global Burden of Disease super-regions would meet this threshold by 2050 if present trends continue.

Elimination strategies rest on three measures: HPV vaccination, screening, and treatment of cervical disease. Cervical cancer is largely preventable with these tools, but access to them differs widely between countries. The authors call for broader availability of vaccination, screening and treatment.

Limitations and next steps

The estimates carry important caveats. Data availability and quality are limited, particularly in low- and middle-income countries, which are also those facing the greatest projected burden. Uncertainty in the underlying figures therefore falls hardest where precision matters most.

The forecasts also extend current trends and do not model the effect of future HPV vaccination programmes. They are best read as a projection of what happens without further change, rather than a prediction of what will happen. This leaves room for follow-up work that builds in scenarios for vaccine rollout, screening coverage and treatment access, and tests how quickly different regions could approach the elimination threshold.

For researchers in epidemiology, health policy and cancer prevention, the study offers a consistent, country-level baseline from 1990 onwards. It also underlines the value of improving cancer registration and surveillance in regions where current estimates are least certain.

Source: Cervical cancer cases and deaths forecast to rise (Medical Xpress, 3 November 2026).

Image: AI-generated illustration.